The past few years have tested every assumption about markets, technology and globalisation. At this year’s Anthemis Investor Forum, Anthemis founders Amy Nauiokas and Sean Park, joined by members of the Anthemis investment team, took to the stage to unpack where we stand today and where we believe the digital economy, venture markets and innovation cycles are heading as we move into 2026.

Across the conversation, one theme was clear: we are entering a new era defined by resilience, technological acceleration and a maturing European innovation landscape.

We’re Living Through a New Macro Regime – One Defined by Resilience, Not Efficiency

After four decades of globalisation, low interest rates and efficiency-optimised supply chains, the pendulum has swung in the opposite direction. Geopolitical tensions are reshaping alliances, capital flows and industrial policy. Across financial services, energy, communications, healthcare and other critical infrastructure, resiliency has become the strategic priority. We expect these dynamics to define the macro environment well into 2026–2028.

At the same time, technological progress is accelerating faster than institutions and societies can adapt to it. The emergence of generative AI marks not just another innovation cycle, but a punctuation point – a structural shift reshaping productivity, competition, and even the distribution of value.

This acceleration is compressing adoption curves: what once took two years now unfolds in six months, and we may soon see three-month cycles. The tension between exponential technology and slower-moving societal systems will define the next decade. The winners will be the teams who can build at AI speed while meeting the institutional bar for reliability, privacy and compliance

Private Markets Are Normalising: A Welcome Return to Discipline

After the long Zero Interest Rate Period era boom and the post-COVID correction, private markets have finally stabilised into something approaching “normality”, with a healthy balance of optimism and scepticism. Early‑stage valuations are once again at historic highs in both the US and Europe, while growth equity remains more selective.

Importantly, scarcity has reintroduced the discipline that makes venture work: hypotheses are tested, weak ideas fail faster, and capital is allocated with intent. Combined with AI-powered leverage for lean teams, this creates stronger learning cycles for founders and investors alike. 

AI Is Reshaping Startup Economics Faster Than Any Previous Platform Shift

A few years ago, a seed-stage company might have raised $3-5m to hire 20–30 engineers. Today, that same amount barely covers the cost of accessing proprietary AI platforms, often requiring founders to raise significantly more capital, only to become dependent on external providers and give up degrees of IP ownership in the process. The way to rebalance this trend is through collaborative, open engineering ecosystems such as CommonAI, which return autonomy, affordability and technical depth to the teams actually building the next generation of products. 

We are also entering the second phase of AI company formation.

The dust from the first wave of generalist “AI wrappers” is settling. What’s emerging now is vertical, high-assurance AI, especially in regulated industries. The companies winning early are those embedding regulation, compliance, security and workflow nuance from day one. A clear example from the Anthemis portfolio is Alaffia Health, which began with machine learning models to detect billing errors for healthcare payers. With the shift to agentic AI, they’ve accelerated dramatically, unlocking larger enterprise contracts and expanding their product surface. This reflects a broader trend: deep, specialised, industry-native AI is outperforming horizontal solutions.

Europe and the UK: Founders Are Staying, Capital Must Catch Up 

The generative AI wave has drawn in a new generation of technical founders willing to build fast and ambitiously. But as industries shift toward “high-assurance AI,” a rebalancing is coming. The next wave of enduring AI companies in insurance, energy, financial services, healthcare and climate will demand founders with deep domain expertise, not just model-building talent.

Europe and the UK are simultaneously benefiting from a monumental shift: for the first time in decades, top-tier founders no longer feel they must move to the US to build globally significant companies.

Crucially, we’re also seeing US capital begin to genuinely rebalance toward Europe and the UK – with institutional investors shifting from an 80/20 (US/Rest of World) allocation to something closer to 50/50. Combined with a renewed focus on technological and economic sovereignty, this creates a powerful tailwind. But the structural challenge remains domestic: Europe doesn’t have a savings problem, it has an allocation problem. Redirecting even 1% of European pension assets toward innovation and private markets would transform the continent’s strategic position for decades.

Policy momentum is encouraging, particularly around venture debt and other instruments designed to bridge the scale-up “valley of death.” But ultimately, unlocking institutional capital at scale is the catalytic lever.

ESG & DEI Are Not Going Away, They’re Being Reframed

While politicised elsewhere, ESG and DEI remain mainstream in the UK and Europe, both as policy frameworks and as practical risk-adjusted return drivers. 

We see ongoing opportunities in energy systems, especially around grid modernisation, electrification, and the market plumbing required to route electrons and incentives efficiently. 

The framing is shifting from virtue to verifiable value creation, and the pipeline is there for teams that deliver measurable outcomes.

Final Thoughts: Designing the Future, Not Waiting for It

If one thing came through clearly in this discussion, it is that the next decade will not reward passive investors. At Anthemis, we’ve built our firm around shaping outcomes, not waiting for them. From our Female Innovators Lab, to hands-on portfolio management, to the launch of CommonAI, we believe venture itself must innovate in order to support founders building in the most regulated, strategically important sectors of the economy. 2026 will be defined by resilience, acceleration, and a shift toward European technological strength. It’s a moment that requires conviction, creativity and collaboration. And we’ve never been more optimistic.

To hear more about our predictions and outlook for 2026, sign up for our January webinar here.